Red Wings Expectations Revisited & Goals Against Metrics
Also, a little known Red Wings History nugget some fans don't know about.
Welcome to the THW Detroit Red Wings Substack newsletter, with all the latest from our Red Wings writers.
In today’s edition, we look at who has exceeded expectations and who has failed to meet them and take a deep dive into the metrics against the Red Wings and more.
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Now on to the good stuff…
Red Wings: Do Poor Expected Goals Metrics Actually Matter?
February 6, 2024 by Tony Wolak
Much has been made of the Detroit Red Wings’ expected goals metrics lately. I suppose that is to be expected, though. As a quick refresher, a team’s expected goals total is derived by weighting all unblocked shot attempts by their probability of being a goal. That probability is determined by shot speed, location, type, and other variables depending on who is calculating the metric (i.e. Natural Stat Trick, Money Puck, etc.). The values for each unblocked shot attempt are added up to produce the team’s expected goal total.
Red Wings vs. Expectations: Who’s Exceeding & Who’s Failing
February 5, 2024 by Tony Wolak
Before the season began, I put together scoring projections for each Detroit Red Wings player. And since we’re in the midst of a nine-day All-Star break, now is a good time to revisit those projections. As a whole, the Red Wings are exceeding expectations offensively, but falling short defensively – at least when compared to last year’s team. But what about individual players? Which are outpacing my projections? And which are lagging behind? Let’s dive in and find out.
Wayne Gretzky Almost Joined the Detroit Red Wings
February 3, 2024 by Tony Wolak (THW Archives)
It’s been 35 years since the Wayne Gretzky trade to the Los Angeles Kings that sent shock waves throughout Edmonton, all of Canada, and the entire hockey world. ESPN’s 30 For 30 franchise featured the trade in one of their documentaries, interviewing all parties involved and chronicling the events that led up to and consequently followed the seismic trade. In the documentary, Gretzky mentioned that he was allowed to pick his next destination and that decision ultimately came down to two teams: the Kings and Detroit Red Wings. The Kings traded a fortune for Gretzky and the rest was history.