Why We’re Asking the Wrong Questions About the 2026 UFA Class
What's really going on inside the heads of several upcoming UFAs
As the NHL's salary cap prepares to take its biggest leap in years, the conversation around the 2026 unrestricted free agent (UFA) class is shifting in an unexpected direction. Rather than focusing solely on dollar figures, insiders suggest that term—not money—will become the driving force behind contract negotiations for the league’s top stars.
Along with Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, and Kirill Kaprizov, the 2026 UFA class is still shaping up to be one of the most star-studded in recent memory. Among the high-profile forwards currently set to hit the open market are Kyle Connor, Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, and Martin Necas. There’s also a trio of future Hall of Famers—Alex Ovechkin, Anze Kopitar, and Evgeni Malkin—whose contracts are set to expire, though their futures may hinge on retirement decisions.
Regardless, the sheer volume of elite talent slated for 2026 makes it a potential turning point for the league’s contract landscape.
For fans wondering if their stars are staying put, perhaps that’s not the right question to ask. What might be weighing on the minds of one of the best crops of UFAs in years is not if they should stay, but for how long?
McDavid Is the Most Prominent Example
The shift in thinking is already evident in the speculation surrounding Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid.
“I don't have any concern that he (McDavid) isn't going sign in Edmonton.,” said Sports 1440’s Jason Gregor. “The term should be the conversation.”
In previous years, elite players were expected to lock in for the full eight years, maximizing financial security and team control. But that thinking may be outdated in the new cap landscape.
With the NHL’s upper limit projected to rise by as much as $10 -$15 million over the next few years, stars may now lean toward four- or five-year deals that allow them to hit the market again while still in their prime.
“We're in a situation now where the cap is going up so much,” said Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. “I think McDavid will re-sign on a four-year deal… I do not see an eight-year deal in Edmonton.”
ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski and Jeff Marek feel he same way, questioning what exactly the Oilers need to show McDavid in order to convince him to commit long-term. With the window for contention still open but narrowing, McDavid might feel partially responsible for ensuring the Oilers remain competitive and continue to try to improve.
McDavid’s thinking could have a domino effect across the league, with other stars like Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, and Jack Eichel watching closely. They hold a unique power with NHL teams. They have a chance to not just cash in a few years after they sign their next deal, but they can force teams to work to keep them happy.
Who Sets the Market?
There might be a reason most of the high-profile free agents haven’t signed yet, despite them all being eligible on July 1. Many could be waiting to see who signs first.
The first to go through the wall always gets a little bloody. No one wants to set the market too low—or choose the wrong term—in what’s expected to be a highly competitive free-agent frenzy.
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