Playoffs Performance vs Regular Season Results...What Happens to Some Players?
Sam Bennett and Evan Bouchard are excelling in the playoffs. How does it compare to their regular seasons?
Have you ever wondered which players see their production improve and decline the most in the playoffs? Here, we try to answer that question.
The calculation we’ll be using to determine this is their percent change in points per 60 minutes of ice time from the regular season to the postseason. If it’s a positive number, that player scored more in the playoffs than in the regular season, and vice versa if it’s negative.
I compiled forwards and defensemen with at least 500 minutes of playoff ice time between their age-22 and age-28 seasons. The reason for those ages is that it’s a broad version of most players’ primes—not exact, but it gets the job done. Also, that parameter exists as a way not to punish players who made the playoffs when they were older—it’s often better for career production to not make the postseason in your mid to late 30s at all.
To exclude depth players who could otherwise skew results, there is one additional criterion: at least 2.00 regular-season points per game for forwards and 1.00 for defensemen, when they were between the ages of 22 and 28. The science isn’t perfect, but we’re getting the best of the best, for the most part.
All of the data is accurate from the 2007–08 regular season through Game 3 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final. The only other caveat is that all players included appeared in at least one NHL game for the 2024–25 season (including playoffs) and have not yet announced their retirement. Or, in other words, active.
Forwards
There are 94 forwards who fit under those criteria—some are in their primes, while others are years out of it. Of that group, only 15 have a positive percent change from their regular-season to playoff points per 60 (P/60).
They rank as follows:
Sam Bennett leading this list isn’t a surprise. The pending unrestricted free agent is in the midst of a Conn Smythe Trophy-level playoff run, yet has a career-high point total in the regular season of just 51.
It’s been rumored that some teams are willing to pay Bennett $10 million per season despite the lackluster regular-season production for that kind of money. This is the reason why—a 28.10% increase in points per 60 during the playoffs, which is the polar opposite of fellow free agent Nikolaj Ehlers’ 44.67% decrease (which we’ll revisit).
Speaking more broadly, 11 of those 15 forwards have won the Stanley Cup—it’ll be 12 if Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers can mount a comeback against Bennett in the Stanley Cup Final. Conversely, only six of the top 15 regular-season points per 60 producers have hoisted Lord Stanley.
Some stars just missing out on the 15-player group with a positive percent change are Mark Scheifele, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and William Nylander. That’s most interesting for McDavid and Kucherov, since their regular-season production alone is first-ballot Hall of Fame-worthy.
