What to Watch For as the NHL Trade Deadline Plays Out
One of the main questions about the NHL Trade Deadline every season is how will it play out. Here are 3 things to keep in mind while you watch it all play out.
The NHL Trade Deadline always bring a lot of emotions. Fans of the 32 teams are eagerly waiting to see what moves will be made either for their playoff run or their future.
Teams have to navigate through several tough decisions to determine their best course of action. While we ultimately know some of those conversations, many of them are behind closed doors never to see the light of day.
One of the things that teams, fans and media alike all wonder going into the Trade Deadline is just how exactly will it play out? Some years, the big trades happen early leaving deadline day itself rather boring from a big-name standpoint. But other years, deadline day comes with multiple explosive trades.
Why does the outcome vary from one season to another? That’s what we’re going to attempt to explain here.
No one has a crystal ball that can look into the future. But if you look at the existing conditions in several key areas, it provides potential important clues as to what could be coming as we near the deadline.
We will discuss three considerations to keep in mind when trying to figure out how active the trade deadline will be. Our hope is that this gives you a different perspective on what factors tend to drive the action in trades.
First Consideration: The Top Story
First and perhaps most importantly, we have to identify what the top story is around the NHL. In the context of the Trade Deadline, the top story is the one player, team or situation that is so big that impacts as many teams as possible.
Think of it as the situation in which teams cannot afford to make any other moves until there is clarity on how the top story will play out. Teams in this case must keep all of their top assets handy in case they have a chance to strike.
At the 2024-25 Trade Deadline, the top story is Mikko Rantanen. The Carolina Hurricanes acquired him on Jan 25 with the thought they would go all-in for the Stanley Cup.
Rantanen’s start in Raleigh hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. It’s even gotten to a point where the Hurricanes reportedly canvassed the NHL to gauge their interest in him both as a rental and as a long-term fixture.
We’ll see where it all goes. But you can understand the hesitation by teams who are interested in Rantanen. Those teams might have interest in other players. Until they are officially out on him, they are not trading their best assets including first-round picks.
The Hurricanes can also elect to keep Rantanen and make a run as most expected they would when the trade first happened.
This canvassing has put a stop of sorts on the market. While trades are still occurring, you aren’t really seeing the biggest names involved.
Teams work in a pecking order of sorts. They identify which players they’re interested in and then work through their list in order of preference.
It’s safe to assume most lists will be topped by Rantanen. Even as a rental, his cap hit is affordable and can help any contender over the top.
Having a top story of this magnitude does point to some potential fireworks closer to the deadline. Once the first domino falls, the rest fall behind it.
A Buyer’s or Seller’s Market
Now that we’re beyond the top story, we turn our attention to the market as a whole. Think of this as a basic economics class. There’s supply and demand.
