Top 5 Forwards of the 2023 NHL Draft - What to Expect This Season

All of the first five forwards taken in the 2023 NHL Draft are set to play in the league in 2024-25. What should we expect?

Just one year after the 2023 NHL Draft took place, five of the top forwards selected are set to play in the big leagues in 2024-25. For the three who debuted last season and the two who are poised to do so this go-around, what might they look like? How many points will they put up?

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Connor Bedard (First Overall, Chicago Blackhawks)

For 19-year-old Connor Bedard, he lived up to the hype and more in his rookie campaign in 2023-24—and there’s more to unlock as he ages. The Chicago Blackhawks centerman won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best rookie with 61 points in 68 games, but that’s just the surface for the teenage star. He is one of the most dynamic prospects to ever grace the league, giving him a best-player-in-the-world upside.

Let’s focus on Bedard’s strengths to start out. Looking at even-strength offense, he was good with 0.67 relative goals per 60 minutes (GF/60 Rel) and 0.50 relative expected goals per 60 (xGF/60 Rel). With 40 even-strength points, he was tied for 103rd among skaters despite missing 14 games with a fractured jaw.

While he was solid at even strength, Bedard was much more effective if we include all strengths of play. Due to his dominance on the man advantage, his numbers at all strengths rank among the NHL’s best offensive players. With 1.74 GF/60 Rel and 1.60 xGF/60 Rel, he was in the same conversation as players like Dylan Larkin, Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, and Mathew Barzal.

Relative goals make the best player on a rebuilder stand out a bit more, due to the fact that it takes less for a star to wildly outperform teammates, but it’s not like Bedard was getting much help. Playing the bulk of his even-strength ice time with forwards such as Philipp Kurashev (816 minutes), Nick Foligno (399 minutes), and Ryan Donato (230 minutes), scoring was hard to come by but the youngster made it work.

Now, Bedard has Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen to work with, who were both signed in free agency. These aren’t top-end forwards by any means, but having two players who have flirted with point-per-game (P/G) campaigns in their not-so-distant past can really take Bedard’s offense to the next level. A massive jump can be taken here—that can’t be overstated.