Why Kraken Haven't Had the Same Success as Golden Knights...and It's Not Just the NHL Expansion Draft
These two expansion teams were only separated by a few years. Why isn't Seattle as good as Vegas?
Before the Seattle Kraken entered the NHL, they were instantly compared to the Vegas Golden Knights, thus coming in with high expectations.
But with the Kraken sitting in the basement with a few games to spare in 2024-25 and only one playoff appearance to their name, their approach hasn’t worked.
The Golden Knights, an expansion team from four seasons prior, have had much more success. They’ve only missed the playoffs once, and they have a Stanley Cup to their name. Sitting atop the Pacific Division this season, they may be two-time champions by the time June rolls around.
Though Vegas had an objectively better expansion pool to select from, it’s been their post-draft approach that’s made them a model franchise. On the contrary, Seattle’s has contributed to their hardship.
Seattle’s Flawed Approach to Free Agency
Philipp Grubauer
Let’s begin with Seattle’s approach to free agency since their inception, starting with Philipp Grubauer. The Kraken gave him a chance with a six-year contract worth $5.9 million annually.
On the surface, it’s a good idea to target a goaltender who ranked in the top 10 among qualified goaltenders (500 unblocked shot attempts faced) over the previous five seasons in save percentage, goals-against average, goals saved above average, and goals saved above expected.
However, very quickly, Grubauer became virtually unplayable at the NHL level. Among netminders with 500 unblocked shot attempts faced since 2021-22, he ranks dead last in goals saved above average, goals saved above expected, and in the bottom 20 for save percentage.
Was such regression bad luck, or was it predictable?
Well, probably a bit of both. Though he put up some solid numbers (with contending teams, mind you), Grubauer was never truly an elite netminder. Committing long-term to someone like that is usually not a good idea.
Think back to all free-agent netminders who weren’t legitimate stars of the sport. How many of them aged well? The answer is very few. While Seattle’s gamble may not have been egregious, it was unnecessary—history would have told them to throw the deal in the trash before it was made.
Chandler Stephenson
Here’s a recent one. There’s a reason why the Golden Knights chose to move off of Chandler Stephenson and went from the eighth seed in the Western Conference to the best in the Pacific (as it stands). That’s because Stephenson wasn’t essential to their success.
