Does Performance in the NHL Preseason Lead to Success in the Regular Season?

The answers aren't straightforward

As we wait for the 2024-25 NHL season to officially begin on Oct. 8, the preseason is here to make the time pass by a little quicker. While it’s meant to be a crucial time for players on the cusp of making a roster and complete their childhood dreams, are there things we can take away from these early games?

I decided to analyze some recent preseason data from teams and players alike, comparing that to how they performed in the regular season. Is there any correlation? I’ll be looking at the preseasons from 2021-22 through 2023-24, then share some early standouts from 2024-25 (though they should be taken with a grain of salt).

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Preseason vs. Regular Season: Power Plays

When looking at preseason versus regular-season power plays, there is a moderate correlation. That is, generally speaking, teams that do well in the preseason on the man advantage tend to do the same once the games start to matter.

Since the sample is still only around two dozen games, a better measure of power-play success is expected goals rather than actual goals scored. Generating a high total of scoring chances tends to remain pretty consistent over a long period (meaning the small sample size is passable), but burying actual goals can vary tremendously over the course of several games. Expected goals measure the danger of certain shots.

When comparing the three-year data between the preseason and regular season in terms of expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) on the man advantage, there appears to be a moderate correlation. If a team can challenge their opponent’s penalty kill when the games don’t count, they tend to do the same when games do count.

Correlation between xGF/60 production on the power play in the preseason vs. the regular season from 2021-22 to 2023-24. Graphic made using Microsoft Excel.

For the most part, being on either side of the extreme in the preseason translates to the regular season to some extent. Star players aren’t on the ice all of the time, but they get similar usage as they would in any ordinary contest if they’re playing—teams without much talent struggle on the man advantage whether it’s September or April, and vice versa.

The New York Rangers, shown in the bottom right-hand corner, are one of the only truly significant outliers (they finished 30th in preseason xGF/60 on the power play but have one of the best man advantages out there). However, they’ve picked up the pace in 2024-25 and sit right where you’d expect them—as one of the best. Teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars rank among the best in both the preseason and the regular season, while the Montreal Canadiens and Philadelphia Flyers are on the opposite end of the spectrum (that is, very poor when up a man).

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Preseason vs. Regular Season: Penalty Kill