New York Islanders: Last Dance Offseason Edition
The window is starting to close and this could be the last opportunity to win it all.
After a great run with the New York Islanders’ core – the widow is starting to close. The organization has missed the playoffs once and won just three postseason games in the past three seasons.
After two consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearances in 2020 and 2021, the Islanders are left with one of, if not the worst prospect pools in the NHL.
General manager and president Lou Lamoriello, who has been the organization’s architect since 2018, confirmed he will be back for another year, as will newly hired head coach Patrick Roy. While they will get one more chance to right the ship with the Islanders’ core, which includes Ilya Sorokin, Mathew Barzal, and probably Noah Dobson, this could be Lamoriello’s last shot before ownership decides it’s had enough of being mediocre.
The Last Dance, a documentary that can be watched on Netflix, prominently gets its name from the ending of the Chicago Bulls dynasty in 1997-1998. Obviously, the Islanders’ current core group is nowhere near the level of that dynasty – but the concept stands the same. The last run before it all ends, and it will require an offseason of reconstruction.
Trades And Salary Cap
Barzal is a great player thanks to his elite skating and playmaking ability. Dobson may turn out to be a difference maker for the Islanders, and expect Sorokin to bounce back after resetting this offseason. But they all need help to compete with the top-heavy teams.
The biggest obstacle the Islanders face, currently, is just the $5.34 million in cap space to work with. That considers Scott Mayfield is healthy and does not need a long-term injury reserve designation. Currently, the Islanders have six defensemen, two goaltenders, and 11 forwards (including recently signed Maxim Tsyplakov) on the books for 2024-2025.
Work needs to be done, and at least one trade needs to happen. Plus, some of the core needs to be shaken up. Brock Nelson has one year left at $6 million and should be easy to move. The center is the most logical player to trade, and Lamoriello needs to take the best offer for him, maybe that’s a first-round pick and a top prospect.
Also, at least one of Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Casey Cizikas, who combine for $7.5 million against the cap, should be moved as well. Both are bottom six centers and will be tougher to move. However, Lamoriello could get a deal done by retaining 50 percent of their salaries. With Nelson’s contract fully off the books, that would give the Islanders up to $9.75 million in extra cap space.
Signings and Re-Sigings
That gives the Islanders enough ammunition to go after the big fish in free agency, Steven Stamkos. And he should be their top priority. The Canadian center can play wing and fills a big need on the power play as a right-handed triggerman. The Athletic estimates on a four-year deal, Stamkos’ average annual value will be $8.1 million.
That will, of course, take a big chunk out of the Islanders’ cap space, and would give them $7 million left to spend for next season. To complete the roster, the Islanders will need two more forwards and an extra defenseman. It’s a squeeze, but it can be done by signing players for around $1 million or less against the cap, which will be Lamoriello’s job. But think of less-known names that can improve the dead-last penalty kill such as Sam Lafferty, Christian Fischer, and Trevor Lewis.
Plus, Mike Reilly should get strong consideration to be re-signed. Last season, the American defenseman led all Islanders in expected goals (XG) at 56.51 percent, according to Natural Stat Trick. Reilly should be well within the budget even with Stamkos on the books.
The Islanders should let Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck walk as free agents. It’s time to move on from what was known back in the prime as the “identity line,” which also includes Cizikas. Players who can improve the penalty kill are needed now.
Trade Deadline
If the organization is looking at this as one of the last years for contention, then the first-round pick in the 2025 draft should be in play. Of course, it will depend on where they are in the standings.
But assuming the Islanders are in a playoff position, that will give the front office the green light. The only problem is the Islanders could be in cap hell with the Stamkos deal and other free-agent signings. But they might be able to get creative with some of the top players, who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in 2025-2026.
For example, if St. Louis is not a playoff team again, they might decide to deal Pavel Buchnevich, who has one year left at $5.8 million. The Islanders, who would almost certainly have to send their first-round pick the other way, would get his cap hit reduced to $2.9 million if the Blues retain 50 percent of the remaining contract. Additionally, a third team could get involved to take on another 50 percent and bring the cap hit down to $1.45 million.
The Islanders might be able to do the same thing for other stars that could be available with larger cap hits such as Brad Marchand, who has one more year left at $6.1 million.
Ideally, the make-up of the Islanders’ top-six forwards would include Barzal, Stamkos, Anders Lee, Horvat, Buchnevich, and Kyle Palmieri. If Sorokin can re-find his game, that’s a roster that’s talented enough to contend for the Stanley Cup.
Additionally, mid-round picks should be in play to acquire forwards who specialize in killing penalties or have enough talent to slot inside the top six. Expiring contracts after 2024-2025 include Pius Suter, Nic Dowd, and Marcus Johansson. Those will be names to watch at the trade deadline.
Bottom Line
Now look, many would argue Lamoriello has overstayed his welcome on Long Island. But he will be back for at least another year and rebuilding isn’t an option, considering all the long-term contract obligations.
The best they can do is retool and move the tradable pieces for cap space to set up a big move. It may not be Stamkos in free agency, but perhaps a talented player becomes available via trade such as Nikolaj Ehlers of the Winnipeg Jets. Plus, the Islanders should have at least one first-round selection to make in the 2024 NHL draft. Maybe the player picked turns out to be a home run for the future.
A lot can change between now and next year’s trade deadline. Injuries happen and surprise players tend to become available. But the offseason could be treated like it’s The Last Dance with this group. Improving the abysmal special teams needs to be a top priority, either way.
If that doesn’t work, Lamoriello will be gone, and the new general manager could try to start rebuilding.