Is Taking a Goaltender in the First Round of the NHL Draft Worth It?

Having strong goaltending is pivotal to winning a Stanley Cup, but recent history is not so favorable of being the first goaltender taken off the board.

While it is still too early to tell how the goaltenders taken in the first and second rounds of recent drafts will pan out, the news of Nashville Predators’ 2020 11th overall pick, Yaroslav Askarov being shipped to the San Jose Sharks has led fans to discuss the rationale behind taking a netminder in the first round.

Since Andrei Vasilevskiy went 19th overall in 2012 to the Tampa Bay Lightning, six goaltenders have been selected in the first round. Of the six, only one is considered a reliable NHL goaltender, and the other five are fighting for NHL jobs this season.

---

Ilya Samsonov - 22nd Overall

Following Vasilevskiy in 2012, the next goaltender to be selected in the first round was in 2015 when the Washington Capitals selected Ilya Samsonov with the 22nd. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound Russian was coming off of a solid season with Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk of the MHL, Russia’s premier junior league. He went 11-4-1- with a 2.66 goals against average (GAA) and .918 save percentage (SV%), leading scouts to have him as a projected second or third-round pick, so hearing his name so early was a surprise.

After four seasons of development, Samsonov joined the Capitals in the shortened 2019-20 season. He went 16-6-2 with a 2.55 GAA, .913 SV%, and -2.3 goals saved above expected (GSAx), according to MoneyPuck. He put up a respectable season for a 22-year-old rookie and was expected to build on his development the following season. However, that was not the case. After two additional seasons in Washington, he finished his career with the Capitals with a 52-22-8 record, 2.81 GAA, .902 SV%, and -20 GSAx. Following the 2020-21 season, he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

In two seasons with the Leafs, Samsonov’s overall numbers are slightly better. He went 50-17-13 with a 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, and 9.9 GSAx but struggled in the 2023 and 2024 Playoffs. In 14 total playoff games, he went 5-8-0 with a 3.09 GAA, .897 SV%, and -2.1 GSAx.

After signing with the Vegas Golden Knights this offseason, Samsonov will be vying for the backup job against Akira Schmid, formerly of the New Jersey Devils. At 27 years old, Samsonov is unlikely to reach the level expected from a first-round selection, but he has panned out as a decent NHL goaltender. In the end, the Capitals likely wish they had selected Brock Boeser or Travis Konecny, the 23rd and 24th overall picks in 2015. Other goaltenders from the 2015 Draft include Mackenzie Blackwood (42nd), Adin Hill (76th), Sam Montembeault (77th), Karel Vejmelka (145th), and Joey Daccord (199th).

---

Jake Oettinger - 26th Overall