Gameday Preview: Sabres @ Avalanche
With points in three straight, Buffalo looks to continue stretch of playoff-level hockey against tough Avalanche squad.
Monday evening, the Sabres took on the Arizona Coyotes, taking home a 5-2 victory on the backs of strong outings from the fourth line and Devon Levi. Peyton Krebs, Kyle Okposo, and Eric Robinson combined for three goals and seven points in the game — the first truly great showing from the bottom-six this season.
Tonight, they take on the Colorado Avalanche, who have been struggling in their last five games with a 2-3-0 record, scoring three or less in four of the five despite frontman Nathan MacKinnon playing like the best player in the league.
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Without further ado, let’s jump right in with today’s projected lineup:
Projected Lines
Buffalo Sabres
Zach Benson - Tage Thompson - Alex Tuch
Jeff Skinner - Casey Mittelstadt - JJ Peterka
Tyson Jost - Dylan Cozens - Victor Olofsson
Eric Robinson - Peyton Krebs - Kyle Okposo
Rasmus Dahlin - Mattias Samuelsson
Owen Power - Ryan Johnson
Erik Johnson - Henri Jokiharju
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Devon Levi
Colorado Avalanche
Valeri Nichushkin - Nathan MacKinnon - Mikko Rantanen
Jonathan Drouin - Ryan Johansen - Tomas Tatar
Miles Wood - Ross Colton - Logan O’Connor
Andrew Cogliano - Fredrik Olofsson - Ben Meyers
Devon Toews - Cale Makar
Bowen Byran - Josh Manson
Jack Johnson - Sam Malinski
Ivan Prosvetov
Alexandar Georgiev
Lineup Notes
Alex Tuch returns from a hamstring injury tonight, lining up on the top line alongside Thompson and Benson. He missed the Sabres’ previous four games, having been out since December 3rd.
Mattias Samuelsson also returns from injury — he missed Monday’s tilt against the Coyotes with soreness. He should line up alongside his long-term defense partner Rasmus Dahlin.
Erik Johnson makes his return to the Mile High City, where he served for 13 years before moving to the Sabres. Let’s hope he can have a revenge game against his former squad.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen makes his first start since December 3rd, a loss against the Nashville Predators. He’s played well outside of a stinker against the St. Louis Blues on November 30th, but Devon Levi has since taken over the starter’s net.
Ivan Prosvetov gets the start for the Avalanche, and what a pleasant surprise he’s been. Although he’s only won three of eight starts this year, he boasts a SV% of .912 and a GAA of 2.75.
On paper, the Avalanche’s only real threats are their top line and top defense pairing, though their third line of Wood, Colton, and O’Connor has been playing very well. If the Sabres can stymy their top line, it should be an attainable victory.
Team Statistics Matchup
Records: Sabres: 12-14-3 (7th in Atlantic); Avalanche: 17-9-2 (1st in Central)
Power Play Percentage: Sabres: 14.0% (26th); Avalanche: 18.7% (19th)
Penalty Kill: Sabres: 81.7% (11th); Avalanche: 85.6% (7th)
Goals For per Game: Sabres: 2.90 (25th); Avalanche: 3.54 (T-4th)
Goals Against per Game: Sabres: 3.28 (21st); Avalanche: 3.07 (12th)
Shots per Game: Sabres: 30.3 (18th); Avalanche: 32.3 (9th)
Shots Against per Game: Sabres: 29.7 (T-11th); Avalanche: 29.5 (10th)
Team Save Percentage: Sabres: .886 (23rd); Avalanche: .896 (16th)
Key to Victory #1: Control Nathan MacKinnon
To “control” who is inarguably a top-five talent — and arguably a top-three talent in the NHL — might seem like an obvious key to victory, but it really is imperative to keep him in check if the Sabres want any points at all out of this game. Over his last five games, MacKinnon has nine points — four goals and five assists — playing at a 147-point 82-game pace.
Since the Avalanche have top-loaded their first line, he (and they) have been nearly unstoppable. His blistering speed, top-notch hands, and supreme edgework have been on full display, and I’m not sure there’s been a more explosive player in the league in this recent stretch of hockey. If the Sabres, who have been relatively strong in not letting the opposition’s top talent get the better of them this season, are somehow capable of denying MacKinnon the dominance he’s grown accustomed to in the past few games, they genuinely stand a chance in defying the odds and bringing home the win.
Key to Victory #2: Win the First Period
If there’s one thing the Avalanche are good at, it’s protecting an early lead. They hold a record of 10-1-2 when they lead after one period, and a record of 9-2-2 when they are the first team to score. When they’re playing at home, those records change to 7-0-0 and 6-0-0, respectively. The Sabres mustn’t let this happen.
At home, the Avalanche are 0-3-0 when they trail after one, and 4-4-0 when opponents score first. The Sabres, meanwhile are 4-1-1 on the road when scoring first, and 3-0-1 when leading after the first frame. It’ll be tough — the Avalanche have not been playing their best hockey and I’m sure they want to right the ship more than anything else — but if the Sabres can get to Prosvetov early, they hold the best possible chance to overcome Colorado.
Game Prediction
Despite looking phenomenal in their last three games, I do think that the Sabres fall short tonight and lose by a score of 4-1. The Avalanche, carried by their top line, have all the tools to get this game out of hand early, and that’s what I think will happen tonight — especially considering that the Sabres shut out the Avalanche by a score of 4-0 the last time they met. With the way MacKinnon and company have been playing of late, they’ll certainly have a chip on their shoulder heading into tonight.
For the Sabres, I think it’ll be Mittelstadt who gets on the board. For the Avalanche, I think Rantanen scores twice, as well as MacKinnon and Makar. I hope I’m wrong!
Enjoy the game tonight, and let’s go Buffalo!