Gameday Preview: High-Flying Leafs Come to Town
After a ridiculous loss to the Blue Jackets, the Sabres' look to bounce back against high-octane Maple Leafs
The Sabres enter tonight’s bout against the Maple Leafs looking to bounce back from unequivocally their worst loss of the season — a 9-4 stomping by the heavily injured Columbus Blue Jackets. The goaltending was abysmal, the goal-scoring was nonexistent until it was far too late, and the defense was some of the worst hockey I’ve had the pleasure of watching. Head coach Don Granato has slowly been warming his own seat by proxy of horrid coaching, and it seems like he’s one or two losses away from getting canned. Maybe Sabres fans will get that early Christmas present tonight if the Maple Leafs take home two.
Without further ado, let’s jump right in with today’s projected lineup:
Projected Lines
Buffalo Sabres
Jeff Skinner - Tage Thompson - Alex Tuch
JJ Peterka - Dylan Cozens - Jack Quinn
Jordan Greenway - Casey Mittelstadt - Zach Benson
Eric Robinson - Peyton Krebs - Kyle Okposo
Rasmus Dahlin - Mattias Samuelsson
Owen Power - Henri Jokiharju
Ryan Johnson - Connor Clifton
Devon Levi
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Toronto Maple Leafs
Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - William Nylander
Tyler Bertuzzi - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Nick Robertson - Max Domi - Calle Jarnkrok
Bobby McCann - David Kampf - Noah Gregor
Morgan Rielly - Timothy Liljegrin
TJ Brodie - Jake McCabe
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins
Ilya Samsonov
Martin Jones
Lineup Notes
The Sabres’ lines have been completely revamped; now that the players are healthy, they finally get a look at what their starting lineup for this season would have looked like (outside of newly acquired Eric Robinson).
Jeff Skinner is healthy now and has been put alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Hopefully they find the mojo they had last year.
The Dylan Cozens line from last year also gets welcomed back now that Jack Quinn has returned from injury.
Jordan Greenway is healthy again and will be in a third-line role alongside breakout player Casey Mittelstadt and rookie phenom Zach Benson.
The fourth line remains unchanged from the last game.
The defensive pairings also remain unchanged from the last game, outside of Ryan Johnson subbing in for Erik Johnson, which is an orange flag at best.
Ryan Johnson, Buffalo Sabres (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers) Devon Levi gets the start again, though I’m not sure it really matters who’s in net. Everyone has been abysmal.
The Leafs’ lineup is scary on paper. The big-four have been playing to their potential this year — John Tavares has the least points of the group and he’s got 29 points in 29 games. Marner has 34, Matthews has 37 (including 25 goals), and Nylander has 41. It’s frightening.
The Leaf’s goaltending duo is sharper than it seems on paper. Samsonov has not lost in regulation in his last eight starts despite a subpar statistical profile, and backup goaltender Martin Jones has been sturdy enough to take some playing time away from Samsonov.
Team Statistics Matchup
Records: Sabres: 13-17-3 (7th in Atlantic); Maple Leafs: 16-7-6 (2nd in Atlantic)
Power Play Percentage: Sabres: 14.0% (27th); Maple Leafs: 25.9% (5th)
Penalty Kill: Sabres: 80.6% (14th); Maple Leafs: 78.2% (22nd)
Goals For per Game: Sabres: 2.85 (25th); Maple Leafs: 3.59 (2nd)
Goals Against per Game: Sabres: 3.42 (25th); Maple Leafs: 3.24 (19th)
Shots per Game: Sabres: 30.1 (T-19th); Maple Leafs: 32.9 (6th)
Shots Against per Game: Sabres: 29.8 (11th); Maple Leafs: 32.6 (28th)
Team Save Percentage: Sabres: .881 (26th); Maple Leafs: .903 (12th)
Key to Victory #1: Take Care of the Big Four
Duh, right? If the Maple Leafs’ big-four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares struggle to get on the board, they’ll struggle to score as a team. Whereas players like Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and Matthew Knies are threats to score, they’re obviously nowhere near as menacing as the big guys.
Past the core four, the Maple Leaf’s highest scorer — Domi — has just two goals and 17 total points in the club’s 29 games. They’ve got just four 10-plus point depth forwards, which, although there’s an argument for some element of snakebite this year, has always been the team’s issue. Shut down the core four, and you shut down the Leafs.
Key to Victory #2: Lose?
If the goal is to get to the playoffs this year, the team might just be better off losing until Granato is fired. Even with the injury woes, he’s absolutely to blame for the team’s lack of success — he hasn’t made any adjustments, his lineup choices have been asinine at best, and his player deployment has been suspect all year. It’s about high time the Sabres get a new coaching staff, and they won’t do so if they don’t keep losing.
Game Prediction
Despite playing with a fully healthy lineup for the first time this season, I think the Maple Leafs will take home the victory by a score of 5-2.
For the Leafs, I think Matthews will score twice, with the other three goals coming from Nylander, Matthew Knies, and Max Domi. For the Sabres, I’ve got Thompson and Greenway getting on the board.
Enjoy the game tonight, and let’s go Buffalo!
4 -7 Toronto