Flyers Keys to a Win vs. the Coyotes
The Flyers visit the Arizona Coyotes looking to end their five-game winning streak.
Welcome to THW Philadelphia Flyers keys to victory, where we preview every single game by establishing how the Flyers can win a certain matchup. For every contest, we look at some storylines for the Flyers and their opponent alike to try to find ways the Orange and Black can find themselves in the win column.
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Now on to some keys to a Flyers win…
Keep Foerster Hot
Forward Tyson Foerster has been quite impressive over his last few games. His four goals in his last three games make him one of the hottest players in the NHL recently. He and the Flyers’ top line with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny hold an expected goals percentage (xG%) of 59.5 percent, which makes it one of the best current lines in the entire NHL.
Going back to Foerster, he has started to get more open looks now that he is on the top line. He’s in his rookie season — so some streakiness is to be expected — but he was coming off a very uninspiring start to the season where the goals and points weren’t there for him. The skillset has always been there, but the opportunities were not. Playing with Couturier and Konecny has opened up the ice for him a bit, and his high-level shot has caught more goaltenders by surprise as a result.
The Flyers have relied on Foerster’s offense in recent games, so him staying sizzling would be nice for Philadelphia. As long as he is getting looks, there is a good chance he will score. Foerster is a player who only needs open space to strike, so the Flyers will need to create holes in the Coyotes’ defense to do so.
Look to Third Line
Via the eye test and on paper, the Flyers’ third line has been spectacular recently. The trio of Bobby Brink, Morgan Frost, and Owen Tippett has been a great spark in the bottom half of the lineup. Their xG% of 61.5 this season proves that they have been a successful new line that head coach John Tortorella has put together. The goals haven’t exactly been there, but the chances have been. The Flyers will need to look to that line to produce again if they want a win on the road.
Take Advantage of Giveaways
The Coyotes stand as the worst team in the NHL in terms of their percentage of takeaways, with 62 percent of turnovers belonging to them and 38 percent of turnovers belonging to their opponents. On the other hand, the Flyers account for 53.3 percent of steals that happen in their games, which has allowed them to create chances in the offensive zone within seconds. Whether they have taken the puck away in the defensive zone, neutral zone, or offensive zone, goals have resulted. Arizona is the poorest team in this area, not taking care of the puck as much as other teams. That being said, they are also not paying for it, as they hold a 13-9-2 record on the season.
Takeaways that the Flyers have are typically solid positional or effort plays by them rather than miscues from their opponent, so this is a strength for the Flyers. Just 40.1 percent of Arizona’s turnovers occur in the defensive zone, so the Flyers’ work will still be cut out for them.
Watch Out for Arizona’s Goaltending
When a team has a record as good as Arizona’s, they typically have a high xG%. The Coyotes are actually below average in this stat, holding a 49.1 xG% so far this season. Teams that are expected to be outscored more often than not but have a winning record will usually have great goaltending, and that has been the case for the Coyotes. Goaltender Connor Ingram started to make a name for himself last season, finishing with a goals saved above expected (GSAx) of 3.7 in his backup role. This season, he has become the starter and holds a GSAx of 12.2 thus far. He has been one of the best goaltenders in the entire league and is slated to start against the Flyers.
The Coyotes’ goaltending, particularly the play out of Ingram, is sensational enough to win them a game they probably shouldn’t. The Flyers will have to be well aware of how good the goaltending has been and scout Arizona’s netminder closely.
A Dive Into the Numbers
The Coyotes have gotten good depth scoring this season, but Clayton Keller leads the way for them with eight goals and 24 points in 24 games. Nick Schmaltz is right behind him with nine goals for 20 points in the same span, making them a solid duo to lead their team.
Depth-wise, it has been a masterful season for Arizona. 31-year-old Nick Bjugstad has 16 points, career depth forward Michael Carcone has 12 goals and 15 points so far, and free-agent signing Alexander Kerfoot has 15 points, as well.
19-year-old Logan Cooley is the youngest player for either side, and he has scored 14 points thus far this season. He, Foerster, and Brink are three key youngsters to look out for. They all might have an impact on the result of this game.
The Flyers are similar to the Coyotes in some ways with their youthful rosters and exceeding the public’s expectations for them through the first quarter of the season. This matchup should be a fun one.