Evaluating Dawson Mercer's Game Season-By-Season

Having played all 82 games in all three seasons in his young career, let's take a look at Dawson Mercer's performance on a season-by-season basis.

Since making the jump to the big leagues, 22-year-old Dawson Mercer has made an appearance in all 246 games that he’s been eligible for, having missed none due to injury or illness which is an accomplishment in and of itself. With that in mind, though, the youngster has still endured his fair share of up-and-downs, most notably and recently falling victim to a season-long slump in which his counting stats and analytical profile took a major hit from seasons prior.

In order to properly analyze his slow-down this season, one needs to take a deep dive into his play since getting drafted and take a season-by-season tour of his career.

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2021-22: Promising Rookie Season

Mercer took training camp by storm in 2021-22, having burst onto the scene following an incredible playoff run with the Chicoutimi Saguenéens in which he scored 17 points in just nine games while munching a ton of ice time in all situations. He, unsurprisingly, was mostly touted for his unrelenting motor and willingness to grind in the dirty areas to get the job done. It was apparent after a few games, though, that he was in possession of an underrated skill set and outright shouldn’t have fallen to 18th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft. He displayed flashes of silky-smooth mitts, a knack for getting into open spaces, and an incredible ability to release the puck quickly and dangerously in extremely tight coverage — an attribute that very few players in the NHL have.

What became of his first regular season was nothing short of hope-inducing. He was the only Devil to appear in all 82 games, having moved up to a second-line, second power-play role by season’s end, and posting an impressive 17 goals and 42 total points.

Taking a look at the underlying statistics for his rookie season inspired similar amounts of giddiness to see what was to come. His expected goals share (xGF%) was 50.08%, meaning that when Mercer was on the ice, the Devils outplayed their opponents more often than not, controlling a smidge over half of the expected goals over the course of the season.

His rate statistics were similarly impressive; among the 13 Devils forwards with at least 45 games played in 2021-22, Mercer ranked 7th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), 7th in scoring chances for per 60 minutes (SCF/60), and 3rd in high-danger chances for per 60 minutes (HDCF/60). Unsurprisingly, the names ahead of him for the former two statistics were the rest of the regulars in the top six, but it was encouraging to see that he didn’t seem out of place there.

His individual metrics for 2021-22 stood strong too. In the same group of forwards, Mercer was 7th in shots per 60 minutes (S/60), 7th in individual expected goals per 60 (ixG/60), and, in the same spirit as the team-centric statistics, 4th in individual high-danger chances per 60 minutes (iHDCF/60). The product of all of this? Mercer was 7th in total points per 60 minutes at 5v5, ahead of the likes of Tomas Tatar and Pavel Zacha.

Looking one layer further into his analytics provides yet another reason for his rookie