Does a Strong Finish Indicate a Breakout Season for Young NHLers?
Do young players leave late-season hints that a breakout is coming?
At the end of last season, you may have noticed some young stars finding their groove.
Among the most notable was Leo Carlsson, finishing March and April with an impressive 21 points in 24 games—up from 24 points in his previous 52 games in the campaign. Today, he’s one of the top point-getters in the NHL.
This begs the question: Should everyone have known that Carlsson was on the cusp of superstardom after his impressive late-season run? Or was it merely a coincidence? Let’s look at the data to find out.
Methodology
Using Evolving-Hockey’s data, I tracked every player aged 18 to 20 since 2015–16 to finish the last two months of a season with 15 or more points.
To narrow things down to true breakout star performances, I excluded players on pace for fewer than 60 points per 82 games during that two-month stretch. I also excluded players who did not exceed their previous scoring pace by 15 points per 82 games.
To make my methodology clearer, I’ll use Carlsson as an example.
He ended the last two months of 2024–25 with 21 points in 24 games, so he meets the first requirement (15-plus points in the last two months).
That translates to 72 points per 82 games, which means he also fits the second requirement (at least 60 points per 82 games).
Finally, since he had 24 points in 52 games—38 per 82—prior to the last two months, he meets the third requirement (exceed previous scoring pace by 15 points per 82 games; 72 minus 38 is 34, which is greater than 15).
To complete the experiment, I compared their scoring rate before those final two months to their next season. Carlsson’s isn’t complete, but with 26 points in 17 contests, it’s looking like the bump in scoring pace was the new norm after all. But what about everyone else?
The Data and What It Means
Excluding last season, there were 12 players who fit the criteria, none of whom were repeats. They are: Dylan Guenther (2023–24), Luke Hughes (2023–24), Wyatt Johnston (2023–24), Juraj Slafkovský (2023–24), Seth Jarvis (2021–22), Tim Stützle (2021–22), Quinn Hughes (2019–20), Pierre-Luc Dubois (2017–18), Clayton Keller (2017–18), Mitch Marner (2017–18), Connor McDavid (2016–17), and Brayden Point (2016–17).
