Do Efficient Contracts Actually Predict Stanley Cup Success?
A Look at The Athletic's NHL’s Top Cap-Savvy Teams for 2025-26.
By all accounts, the NHL’s salary cap landscape has shifted dramatically heading into the 2025-26 season. With a rising cap and front offices increasingly prioritizing long-term value, the teams that have mastered contract efficiency may also be the ones best positioned for Stanley Cup contention.
That seems to be the underlying suggestion behind The Athletic’s annual Contract Efficiency Rankings, where writer Dom Luszczyszyn grades every team’s contract situations (sans entry-level deals) based on surplus value—the difference between a player’s on-ice value and their actual salary.
But the question remains: Does contract efficiency really correlate with Stanley Cup contention?
If the top handful of teams in his rankings are any indication, the answer might be yes.
Lightning Strike at No. 1
A year ago, the Tampa Bay Lightning were outside the top 10 in efficiency rankings. Now, they’re first overall. Tampa is always in the mix, even if they’re not the dynasty they once were.
