Behind Timo Meier's Disappointing 2023-24 Season

After signing an eight-year, $8.8 million AAV contract this past off-season, the star power forward has been nothing short of disappointing this season.

The New Jersey Devils have had a frustrating season by all accounts — after a franchise-high 52-win season, expectations were sky-high for a team that heavily invested in the same core that carried them to the second round of the 2022-23 postseason. Two of the most lucrative contracts in the system were doled out in the off-season, with star forwards Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier signing dual eight-year contracts worth $7.875 million and $8.8 million, respectively. Bratt has more than earned his contract, leading the team in points and having extremely strong underlying statistics.

Meier, well, not so much…

After being acquired by Devils’ GM Tom Fitzgerald in a trade that saw forward Fabian Zetterlund, defensemen Shakir Mukhamadullin and Nikita Okhotiuk, and two high-round picks (a 2023 first and conditional 2024 second), the 26-year-old Swiss put up nine goals and 14 points in 21 games as a Devil. On the year, he had 40 goals and 66 points. Flash forward to 2023-24, and the power forward has scored just 19 points — nine goals and 10 assists — in 37 games.

His underlying metrics have fallen off a cliff this season, too. Last year, Meier sported an astounding expected goals share (xGF%) of 59.41%, meaning that whichever team he was on — the Sharks or Devils — controlled almost 60% of the expected goals when he was on the ice. This season? He’s dipped all the way down to 46.58%. In fact, it’s the first time in his entire nine-year career that his xGF% has been below 50%.

Timo Meier, New Jersey Devils (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

His expected goal rates are worse than any other time in his career, too. His expected goals for per 60 (xGF%) is 2.78 — the second-lowest rate of his career and a monstrous decrease from the incredible 3.55 xGF/60 he posted last season. His expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) is also significantly worse: at 3.19 this season, it’s the first time in his career that it’s surpassed 2.7 and again, is much, much worse than the 2.42 from last season.

So, what’s been going on? Using tracked microstats, we can get a clear picture of the problems going on with Meier. Let’s first begin by looking at his unbelievable profile last year: