5 Teams That Could Be Really Good if Their Goaltending Gets Just a Little Better

Which NHL teams have the most room to improve due to underwhelming goaltending last season?

Though a goaltender is just one of the usual six players on the ice for a specific team at a time, they have a huge impact. That much is agreed upon by almost everyone. But how important are they, really? That’s what we’ll answer here, looking at how five different teams could take a step up in 2024-25 due to an improved situation between the pipes.

For the following analysis, I’ll primarily look at a team’s goals saved above expected (GSAx). The statistic looks at the danger of specific shots, assigning them an “expected goal” total instead of just counting it as a regular shot attempt. That way, the defenses that allow fewer quality looks are rewarded while the defenses that give up a lot of shots right in front of their goalie are punished.

For example, it’s not fair to say a goaltender who stopped nine of 10 shots from the blue line is better than one who stopped eight of 10 from the slot, but a typical save percentage (SV%) wouldn’t account for that. This is what GSAx attempts to correct.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the teams that have the most to gain next season thanks to an improved situation in the net. Those clubs are the Minnesota Wild, New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs.

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Minnesota Wild: Can They Return to 2022-23 Form?

This is one of two teams on this list that didn’t make any changes to their major tandem (unless Jesper Wallstedt earns a full-time role, but that’s unlikely until proven otherwise). The Wild are seemingly sticking with Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury, a duo that provided some of the worst between-the-pipes play, by the numbers.

While there wasn’t change, we can assume perhaps significant progression following a disastrous campaign for both of the previously mentioned goaltenders. Despite finishing fourth in the NHL in terms of expected goals against, making Minnesota’s defense one of the best in the league, they were 20th in goals allowed. With a minus-30.81 GSAx rating, goaltending cost the Wild a chance at the postseason—they allowed over 30 more goals than they should have, at least in theory.

Again, Minnesota didn’t exactly add to their goaltending corps, but the Gustavsson-Fleury duo had a minus-24.96 GSAx rating in 2023-24 with a .897 SV%. The season prior, they combined for a positive 18.15 GSAx rating and a .919 SV%. Looking at just those two, that’s a swing of 43.11 goals allowed over expected. Wallstedt wasn’t much help in the few games he appeared in, either.

At 39 years old, it’s unclear whether or not Fleury can bounce back from last season. But Gustavsson has shown some promise in the past. One of the NHL’s best back-ends should help him return to that form (which was a .931 SV%).

Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers).

If the goaltending can’t return to its 2022-23 level, there’s always hope that Wallstedt can come in and be the hero. He is one of the top prospects between the pipes in hockey. There’s a level of uncertainty, but he will also receive a big reward if things go right.

Had the Wild theoretically put up an identical GSAx in 2023-24 to what they did the season prior, they would have had around a plus-36 goal differential. With better goaltending, a team that finished a modest 20th in the standings would have easily risen above that playoff line and perhaps inside the top 10—the room for improvement is enormous, which is exactly why nobody should count Minnesota out of the postseason race for this season. Everything hinges on Gustavsson, Fleury, and Wallstedt (if he gets NHL time).

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New Jersey Devils: Are Markstrom & Allen a High-End Duo?

The Devils were a team with quite a few problems last season, particularly on the injury front. But it was their goaltending that really did them in—they allowed 14.37 more goals than expected. Opposed to saving 10.53 above expected in 2022-23, that’s the difference of allowing 24.9 more goals above expected.