4 Reasons the New York Rangers Have Regressed This Season

The Rangers are nowhere near their Presidents' Trophy form from last season. What happened?

The New York Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2023-24. They have appeared in the Eastern Conference Final twice in their last three seasons, too. And yet, here they are, spiraling.

Through their last 14 contests, the Rangers have lost 11 of them in regulation. Below are four reasons why they’re 15-15-1 this season.

All stats through Dec. 19, 2024

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Reason One: Ineffectiveness in Tie Games

Perhaps the primary reason for the Rangers’ decline this season has to do with their effectiveness in tie games.

In 2023-24, the Rangers were one of the best in the business when the score was knotted up (which includes 0-0, of course).

They outscored opponents 99-67 for a goal share of 59.64% (second-best in the NHL) and an expected goal share of 52.11% (11th-best in the NHL).

Now, the team’s PDO (sum of shooting percentage and save percentage) was rather high at second in the NHL. This would usually be called exceedingly good luck (due to the general randomness of those two stats over a large sample, which is explained here), but the Rangers are one of those exceptions.

New York has, at least by salary, the best goaltender in the league. So, their save percentage will be higher than the average club—they were sixth. With elite talents on the offense such as Artemi Panarin, it’s not a surprise they were an efficient bunch shooting-wise, either—they were fifth. So, perhaps their plus-32 goal differential in tie games was inflated, but probably not by that much.

Barclay Goodrow of the New York Rangers and teammates celebrate his overtime goal and win against the Florida Panthers in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)

As a result of their dominance in tie games, their record in one-goal games was an astounding 23-4-4. With a points percentage (PTS%) of .806 in those contests, they got quite the boost in down-to-the-wire affairs. In games decided by more than one goal, they went 32-19-0 (.627 PTS%); still good, but hardly Presidents’ Trophy-caliber.

But they’ve hit a wall in 2024-25. While luck hasn’t exactly been on their side in terms of their shooting and save percentages in tie games (16th and 23rd in the NHL respectively), they’ve completely tanked otherwise.

This season, the Rangers have been outscored 30-25 in tie games for a 45.45% goal share (seventh-worst in the NHL) along with an expected goal share of 44.12% (fifth-worst in the NHL).

They still have a winning record in one-goal games (6-4-1), but their .591 PTS% in these contests is a far cry from what it used to be. If we apply their PTS% from last season, they’d have a seven or eight-point boost on their current total of 31. This would firmly put them in the playoffs.

This doesn’t account for all of the Rangers’ woes, but a large chunk of their regression has to do with how they’re playing when games are tied up. To go from the top of the food chain to the bottom in a scenario where a big chunk of a hockey game is played is obviously not ideal.

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Reason Two: Power-Play Regression

Another major factor in the Rangers’ regression this season has been their power play (which has ironically been better in tie games).

Last season, the Rangers were averaging 0.79 power-play goals per 60 minutes. They’ve seen that number fall to 0.55 this time around, going from third to 16th in overall efficiency.

It’s not a luck-based thing, either. New York was fourth in expected goals scored per 60 minutes on the man advantage last season but have fallen to 15th. So, it’s not bad shooting luck that’s hurting the Rangers—it’s bad play.